Goldman Sachs: Risk in Oil Markets Is Skewed to the Downside.
The tariff wars and high spare capacity, mostly from the OPEC+ producers, are skewing the oil price risk to the downside in the medium term, according to Goldman Sachs.
“While we reduced our Brent forecast range by $5/bbl to $65-80, we expect oil prices to edge up in coming months, and think that market pricing of volatility and of the upside risk from potentially lower sanctioned supply remains too low.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin agreeing to a 30-day halt of attacks on energy infrastructure reduces the probability of near-term tightening of the sanctions against Russia, according to Goldman Sachs.
Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs cut its year-end forecast for Brent Crude prices, citing expectations of slower U.S. economic growth and additional OPEC+ supply.
“While the $10 a barrel selloff since mid-January is larger than the change in our base case fundamentals, we reduce by $5 our December 2025 forecast for Brent to $71,” the investment bank’s research team said in a note, adding that “The medium-term risks to our forecast remain to the downside given potential further tariff escalation and potentially longer OPEC+ production increases.”
Source: OILPRICE
